Nonsequitur: What Is The Real Unemployment Rate?

October 19, 2012

In early October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced 114,000 jobs added and a drop in the Unemployment Rate (U3) to 7.8%.  This would be the first time that unemployment dropped below 8% in several years.  However, the BLS soon announced that a “large state” had not released full information and underreported numbers.  (The bureau would not identify which state this was.)

7.8%  Really?

The underreporting state has now been identified (California) and the numbers have been adjusted, not by correction, but by a huge spike in unemployment claims this week.  An additional 46,000 people filed for unemployment in the week after the drop was announced, bringing the seasonally adjusted total to 388,000. 

The official unemployment numbers for October will not be announced until November 2, but they will certainly be higher than 7.8%.

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One Response to “Nonsequitur: What Is The Real Unemployment Rate?”

  1. […] I predicted, the national unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.9%.   More jobs were added, but more people […]

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