Nonsequitur: Not the Primary Results You Think

February 11, 2016

voteasyouplease

The media (and pollsters) would like you to believe that the Republican nomination race is all but over, while the Democratic nomination race is tightly contested. In fact, this isn’t true at all.

 

If you look at the delegate count, you’ll see that the Republican race is very close …

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…while the Democratic race isn’t close at all (largely because of “Superdelegates”).

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On the Republican side, Cruz or Rubio could easily overtake Trump in the next few elections, and even Kasich, Bush and Carson could come back with strong showings in the South.

However, if Clinton continues her strong hold on the “Superdelegates,” she could win the nomination easily, even without winning a majority of states’ delegates. (A “Superdelegate”  is a delegate to the Democratic National Convention that is seated automatically, based on their status as current or former party leader or elected official, whose support is independent of voting results.  For example, Bill Clinton is a “Superdelegate.”)

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2 Responses to “Nonsequitur: Not the Primary Results You Think”

  1. Superdelegates’ choices (on the D side at least, I would assume it works the same on the R side) are not set in stone until the convention. Currently (as of 2-22), after Nevada, Hillary and Bernie are tied, 51-51, in actual delegates whose choice IS pretty much set in stone. After all, at this point 8 years ago, it looked like it was impossible for Obama to overtake Hillary because of the superdelegates. The idea that it’s impossible for Bernie Sanders to win because of those same superdelegates is absurd. If people want to know the actual state of the delegate count and whether your candidate is ahead or behind, they need to pay attention to actual pledged delegates.
    Better yet, if people are dedicated to their candidate, they need to get out, canvass their neighborhoods, talk to their neighbors and members of their community, phone-bank for their candidate, hand out flyers for their candidate, go to other communities, get involved there, too, if those communities don’t already have activists working there, as well. Get involved, get to work, get busy helping your candidate, or your candidate could easily quickly get too far behind in the actual delegate count for the superdelegates to really matter.
    Personally, I support Bernie, for his ecological and sustainability stances, among other things. He supports clean energy, is against fracking (which industry still isn’t letting us know what toxic chemicals they’re using), was always against the KXL pipeline, and was always against the TPP (which has rules that could destroy our environmental laws, among many others, here!). That’s only a few reasons I support him, but those would be enough for me, even if there weren’t other marked differences. He matches me 99% in the extended version of the quiz at isidewith.com, and the next closest candidate already dropped out.

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