Nonsequitur: The Truth About the Republican Primary Race

March 2, 2016

Once again, the media is promoting a hyped agenda. While Donald Trump has won the majority of popular votes and delegates, he has not sewn up the nomination and isn’t close to doing so.  For Republicans, 1,237 delegates are needed to win.  Here are the current counts:

Candidate          Delegates (3/2/16)          Pop. Vote (3/2/16)                              

Trump                  319                                       3,365,867

Cruz                     226                                        2,764,036

Rubio                   110                                        2,132,894

Kasich                  25                                          650,909

Carson*                8                                            572,788

Bush*                  4                                               —-

Huckabee*            1                                               —-

Fiornina*              1                                               —-

Paul*                   1                                               —-

 

Certainly, the trend would support Trump winning the nomination eventually.  But there are 33 state primaries left, including the two biggest, New York and California.  (The New York primary is in April, and the California primary is in June.)  There are 1,777 delegates still available, more than are currently committed.  Cruz and Rubio are still well within range to catch and surpass Trump.

If all of the major candidates stay in the race (meaning Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich), there is also the chance that no candidate will receive the 1,237 requisite delegate count.  The nomination decision would then happen at the Republican convention, brokered by the party.

*Dr. Carson announced today he would be dropping out of the race.  His delegates, and those of Bush, Huckabee, Fiorina and Paul are considered “uncommitted” and will be transferred to another candidate later, probably at the convention.

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